John Kerry narrowly trails President Bush in the battle for the 270
electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the
Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican
in***bent.
Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College math that
favors Bush.
"It's a tough, tough map. I think it's going to be a close race," said
Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore (news - web
sites)'s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for
Kerry.
"But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going
into this convention in great shape," he said.
With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states
and
the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has
25
states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state
polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.
Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of
victory will come from:
_TOSSUPS - Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined
128
electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hamp****re, New Mexico,
Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two
other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry's column.
_LEAN KERRY - Maine, Minnesota and Wa****ngton (a combined 25 electoral
votes) favor Kerry over Bush by a few percentage points. Gore carried them
in 2000.
_LEAN BUSH - North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia,
Arkansas and Missouri (a combined 73 electoral votes) give Bush modest
leads. He won all seven in 2000.
All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between "lean" to
"tossup" throughout the campaign.
____
Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes - one
more
than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the
District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.
Since then, reap****tionment added electoral votes to states with
population
gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states
are
now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260.
Even if Kerry consolidates Gore's states, no easy task, the Democrat must
take 10 electoral votes from Bush's column to close the electoral vote
gap.
Kerry's best prospects may be in the five tossup states won by Bush in
2000:
Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hamp****re and West Virginia.
Winning either Ohio's 20 electoral votes or Florida's 27 would do the
trick.
Bush easily won Ohio in 2000, but its lagging economy puts the state in
play. Kerry must still reduce Bush's advantages among conservative, rural
voters. Florida should favor Bush a bit more than in 2000, partly because
of
its relatively strong economy, but the war in Iraq (news - web sites) has
helped keep the race close.
Nevada and West Virginia have a combined 10 electoral votes, enough to
close
the gap. New Hamp****re, which neighbors Kerry's home state of
Massachusetts,
has four.
West Virginia voted Democratic for decades until Bush made values an issue
in 2000; Kerry is stressing the theme this year. In Nevada, an influx of
Hispanics and the administration's push to use Yucca Mountain as a nuclear
waste site make the state tougher for Bush than in 2000.
Six of the 11 tossup states were won by Gore: Pennsylvania, Oregon,
Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. But the margin of victory was
just
a few thousand votes in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin - meaning Kerry has
his work cut out to keep them.
Of the three, Bush likes his chances best in Wisconsin, where he is
targeting rural voters in a bid to widen the electoral gap by 10 votes.
___
Flush with money and leading a united party, Kerry increased his odds by
expanding the playing field into a handful of GOP states that Bush easily
won in 2000, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia and
Colorado.
Results have been mixed.
After testing the waters, Kerry pulled his ads from Arkansas and
Louisiana,
and downgraded his focus on Virginia and Arizona. Hispanic voters make
Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it's a tough state to
win.
"The race is still fundamentally tied, and the Electoral College map
reflects that," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "But there is beginning
to be a slight tilt toward us with Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and
Arizona
no longer being seriously contested."
Kerry added another Republican-leaning state to his target list when he
chose Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) of North Carolina as his
running
mate. Aides are divided over whether North Carolina will remain a
battleground through November, but its 15 electoral votes are too tempting
to ignore.
Missouri, a traditional battleground, recently moved to the Bush-leaning
category and is being written off by some Democrats. The Kerry campaign
reduced its ad campaign in the state after polls showed him consistently 4
to 6 percentage points behind Bush, with little room for improvement.
Republican advantages in rural Missouri and the fast-growing exurbs make
the
state tough for Democrats, but Kerry will likely keep it on the table
through November in case the political winds ****ft. Besides, abandoning a
traditional battleground would be embarrassing.
The four-term Massachusetts senator has begun to gather strength in
traditionally Democratic states such as Maine, Minnesota and Wa****ngton.
All
were tossups in the spring, but now lean toward Kerry. A good convention
could push Pennsylvania and Oregon into the lean-Kerry category.
Recent polls give Kerry an edge in both states, but strategists for Kerry
and Bush say the races are still tossup.
"There is an angry feeling toward the in***bent because of Iraq," said
David
Sweet, who managed Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's 2000 campaign. "I think
Kerry will win in the end, but that's partly based on an assumption of
things to come. It's close."
Of the states won by Gore, Pennsylvania is by far Bush's top target. The
president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and
has
visited it more than any other contested state - 30 trips since his
inauguration.
For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable
electoral vote gap.
A vote for John Kerry would be very, very pleasing to America's enemies,
as
changing from a VERY Strong president to one so goddamn ugly, would make
us
look very, very weak!!
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